Latest Japan cherry blossom forecast pushes Tokyo date back, sakura now expected first elsewhere

First sakura sightings now predicted for prefecture on opposite side of Japan from Tokyo.

They say that a watched pot never boils, but that’s not actually true, and if you’re making plans based on when the water is going to start bubbling, it’s definitely a good idea to keep an eye on the stove. Likewise, as we get closer and closer to the start of cherry blossom season in Japan, it’s getting more important to fine-tune schedules for travel, get-togethers, and other ways to enjoy the most beautiful time of year, and to help us do just that Japanese meteorological service Weather News has announced its newest update to the sakura forecast for 2025.

● Projected cherry blossom start-of-blooming dates
Akita (秋田): April 13
Aomori (青森): April 18
Kagoshima (鹿児島): March 23 (2 days earlier than previous prediction)
Kanazawa (金沢): April 2
Kushiro (釧路): May 7
Nagano (長野): April 7
Nagoya (名古屋): March 25 (1 day later than previous prediction)
Niigata (新潟): April 6
Osaka (大阪): March 26
Sapporo (札幌): April 24
Sendai (仙台): April 5
Tokyo (東京): March 24 (3 days later than previous prediction)

The biggest change here is for Tokyo, which, according to all of the previous forecasts for this spring, was predicted to be the first place where the flowers of the Somei Yoshino variety (the most prevalent in Japan) would open. The newest projections have moved that date back by three days for Tokyo, and now the cherry blossoms are forecast to show up first on the southwestern island of Kyushu, starting with Miyazaki Prefecture on March 22, followed by Kagoshima the next day.

▼ Kyushu regional forecast: Fukuoka (福岡), Saga, (佐賀), Oita (大分), Nagasaki (長崎), Miyazaki (宮崎), Kumamoto (熊本), and Kagoshima (鹿児島)

Despite this flipflopping of the first-sakura forecast from Tokyo to Kyushu, the general pattern remains that the flowers will appear first on the western and southern sides of Japan, where warm spring weather arrives sooner, and then make their way east/north.

▼ Chugoku/Shikoku forecast: Shimonoseki (下関), Hiroshima (広島), Matsue (松江), Tottori (鳥取), Matsuyama (松山), Kochi (高知), Takamatsu (高松), Tokushima (徳島), and Okayama (岡山)

▼ Kansai/Kinki forecast: Kobe (神戸), Wakayama (和歌山), Osaka (大阪), Nara (奈良), Kyoto (京都), and Hikone (彦根)

▼ Tokai forecast: Tsu (津), Gifu (岐阜), Nagoya (名古屋), and Shizuoka (静岡)

▼ Hokuriku forecast: Fukui (福井), Kanazawa (金沢), Toyama (富山), and Niigata (新潟)

▼ Kanto/Koshin forecast: Nagano (長野), Kofu (甲府), Maebashi (前橋), Yokohama (横浜), Tokyo (東京), Choshi (銚子), Kumagaya (熊谷), Mito (水戸), and Utsunomiya (宇都宮)

▼ Tohoku forecast: Aomori (青森), Akita (秋田), Morioka (盛岡), Yamagata (山形), Sendai (仙台), and Fukushima (福島)

▼ Hokkaido: Sapporo (札幌), Wakkanai (稚内), Asahikawa (旭川), Abashiri (網走), Kushiro (釧路), Obihiro (帯広), Muroran (室蘭), and Hakodate (函館)

Tokyo’s start-of-blooming date being bumped back a few days also means a later predicted date for Ueno Park, arguably Japan’s most famous cherry blossom-viewing venue, which has now shifted from March 22 to March 25.

Ueno Park (上野恩賜公園) (Tokyo): March 25
Maizuru Park (舞鶴公園) (Fukuoka City): March 23
Kumamoto Castle (熊本城) (Kumamoto City): March 23
Kochi Park (高知公園) (Kochi City): March 23
Tsurumai Park (鶴舞公園) (Nagoya, Aichi): March 25
Sunpu Castle Park (駿府城公園) (Shizuoka City): March 25
Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park (平和記念来うん) (Hiroshima City): March 26
Arashiyama (嵐山) (Kyoto City): March 28
Takato Castle Park (高遠城址公園) (Ina, Nagano): April 4
Shiroishikawa Riverbank (白石川堤一目千本桜) (Ogawara, Miyagi): April 4
Hirosaki Park (弘前公園) (Hirosaki, Aomori): April 18
Goryokaku Park (五稜郭公園) (Hakodate, Hokkaido): April 22

Delicate things that they are, sakura don’t immediately snap from closed to full bloom, though. Even after the buds open, they take a couple days to reach their peak beauty, and the revised by-prefecture full-bloom forecast is as follows.

● Full-bloom forecast for Kyushu
Fukuoka: April 1 (1 day later than previous forecast)
Oita: April 2
Nagasaki: March 31
Saga: April 1
Kumamoto: March 31
Miyazaki: March 31 (1 day earlier than previous forecast)
Kagoshima: April 2 (2 days earlier than previous forecast)

● Full-bloom forecast for Chugoku/Shikoku
Okayama: April 3
Hiroshima: April 2
Matsue: April 5
Tottori: April 5
Shimonoseki: April 4
Takamatsu: April 5
Tokushima: April 5
Matsuyama: April 3
Kochi: March 31 (1 day later than previous forecast)

● Full-bloom forecast for Kansai/Kinki
Hikone: April 8
Kyoto: April 3
Osaka: April 3
Kobe: April 4
Nara: April 6
Wakayama: April 1

● Full-bloom forecast for Tokai
Shizuoka: April 3 (1 day later than previous forecast)
Nagoya: April 4 (1 day later than previous forecast)
Gifu: April 4 (1 day later than previous forecast)
Tsu: April 3

● Full-bloom forecast for Hokuriku
Niigata: April 10
Toyama: April 8
Kanazawa: April 8
Fukui: April 6

● Full-bloom forecast for Kanto and Koshin
Mito: April 5 (1 day later than previous forecast)
Utsunomiya: April 6
Maebashi: April 4
Kumagaya: April 3 (1 day later than previous forecast)
Tokyo: March 31 (3 days later than previous forecast)
Choshi: April 4 (1 day later than previous forecast)
Yokohama: April 1 (3 days later than previous forecast)
Nagano: April 12
Kofu: April 4

● Full-bloom forecast for Hokkaido and Tohoku
Sapporo: April 28
Hakodate: April 26
Aomori: April 22
Akita: April 17
Morioka: April 18
Sendai: April 10
Yamagata: April 14
Fukushima: April 8

While the new forecast shows that Tokyoites will have to wait a little longer, overall it’s still shaping up to be a longer-than-average sakura season on the national scale, and even with its later date Tokyo will still have plenty of cherry blossoms during its beautiful Chidorigafuchi light-up festival.

Source: Weather News
Top image: Pakutaso
Insert images: Weather News, Pakutaso (1, 2)
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